Kendra Hardesty / July 29, 2024
Each summer, I take a magnifying glass to the Class A office market to see how the vacancy rate in downtown Portland is shaping up. Last year, I referred to the change from January to July as having “minuscule variance;” this year’s deep dive tells a similar story.
In January of each year, The Boulos Company compiles data to develop a comprehensive analysis of the vacancy rates of office buildings. In particular, we focus on the 28 Class A office buildings in downtown Portland, which include over 2.2 million square feet of space.
From January 2023 to July 2023, there was a mere 0.3% downward shift in the direct vacancy rate. By January 2024, however, the vacancy rate of Class A downtown office buildings increased to 6.25%, a 2.8% increase. This was mostly reflective of a large sublease being converted to direct vacancy, and a significant downsize of another downtown office tenant.
This year, in looking at the shift from January 2024 to July 2024, it’s only increased by 0.7%. The increase is due mostly to several smaller, new vacancies (under 10,000+/- SF). Only one Class A office building has a new direct vacancy over 20,000+/- SF, and even this larger square footage is comprised of multiple smaller suites. The story here is that the shift itself in the first half of the year has been relatively insignificant, and there hasn’t been any single, major contributing factor to call out for the increase.
The sublease vacancy tells a similar story, with 3 new availabilities over 10,000+/- SF, but absorption of similar size, the rate has not had a noteworthy shift since January. With a fair amount of square footage still available for sublease, come January, we’ll keep an eye on whether those spaces have been absorbed, remain as sublease vacancies, or shift to direct vacancies, as that will play a big role in how the 2024 numbers shake out.
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