2025 Mid-Year Market Outlook: Northern New England 

By Jon Rizzo | Partner, Broker

Recently, Boulos Co. Partners Jonathan Rizzo and Caitlin Burke participated in a commercial real estate thought leadership panel with other key players from the development, construction, and brokerage sectors to discuss the state of Northern New England’s CRE market. Hosted by the New England Real Estate Journal, the panel explored both the challenges and opportunities shaping the region. Here are the key takeaways from the day. 

Why Population Growth Isn’t Translating to Job Growth 

Amanda Rector, the State Economist of Maine, shared data that underscores a significant shift in Maine’s demographic and economic landscape, particularly around population growth. Between 2010 and 2020, Maine’s population grew by just 2.6%, ranking 42nd in the nation. But between 2020 and 2024, that figure increased to 3.1%, catapulting the state to 17th nationally. 

While this population growth is encouraging, it’s worth noting that job growth has remained flat. According to Rizzo, “The most plausible explanation is the influx of remote workers. People are moving to Maine for lifestyle reasons while keeping their jobs based somewhere else.” He noted that while many companies have reinstated in-office expectations post-Covid, the hybrid work model is here to stay.  

The Housing Shortage: 80,000 Units Needed by 2030  

The area’s increased population has, obviously, led to an increased demand for housing. According to projections, the state needs 80,000 new market-rate and affordable housing units by 2030, or approximately 16,000/year for the next five years. And they need to be distributed across the state, not just concentrated in Greater Portland. 

Kevin French, CEO of Landry French Construction, highlighted building challenges that stem from the construction industry’s struggle to find qualified workers. He emphasized the need for a state and/or federal effort to incentivize trades education and careers. 

Rizzo agreed saying: “More skilled labor means more projects completed, and completed faster. Right now, it’s about doing more with fewer hands and being smart about how projects get phased and delivered.” One solution gaining momentum: large-scale, mixed-use developments that address multiple needs at once. 

Mixed-Use Development Driving Growth 

Developments like Rock Row (Portland/Westbrook, ME) and The Downs (Scarborough, ME) are key examples that meet the state’s most pressing needs: housing, economic growth, and job creation. As large-scale, mixed-use developments, both are significantly contributing to their municipalities and to the broader region. 

“Rock Row and The Downs successfully bridge residential, retail, medical office, and grocery components and have become anchors in their communities,” said Rizzo. “It takes creativity and persistence to move a project from concept to construction. These developers have shown that despite the slower development pace, persistence pays off.” 

Brokerage Perspective: Steady but Slower 

On the brokerage side, we at The Boulos Company are seeing a similar story. Compared to 2024, lease and sale activity has increased in 2025, but deals are taking longer to close. “Decision-makers are being more thoughtful and analytical. They’re taking extra time to evaluate their space needs,” Rizzo said. 

This mirrors the development process where feasibility studies, value engineering, and cost analysis are extending timelines. Still, the market is moving forward. 

Progress with Patience 

Ultimately, it’s clear that the Northern New England commercial real estate market is growing smarter. As population shifts and remote work patterns evolve, and as developers navigate construction and labor challenges, patience and persistence are proving essential. 

“The takeaway is simple: the market is moving in the right direction,” Rizzo concluded. “It may be slower than some would like, but with the right mix of strategy and gut instinct, we’re making real progress.”